ouchity ouch! Dow 11,350 and the saga continues.....

I wish I felt I had some good news to deliver, but my friends I don't. I'm not much for considering myself a market timer but I can spot a trend when one slaps me across my perfectly chiseled face. Just kidding.

With oil boldly testing new highs and financial media still harping on the credit crunches, and the fed doing nothing but losing more hair, there really aren't too many places the market can go, but down. So as steal a moment from your job and read this and then log into your stock account and you'll notice lots of red number that represent your summer vacation going away think about this. Stocks and their value are basically based on future expectations. So where do you think your stocks are going from here? Take a good look at your portfolio and analyze each position and oversimplify your thinking. In this market environment are your holding going to make money?
Here is an example of what and the hell am i talking about.
First look into you account and spot anything that looks like a bank and after you find it, punch yourself in the face. In a day and age where bank executives are going to prison you might want to consider how something like that might reflect negatively on your holding. Now before you get ready to write me hate mail about what I'm saying, i know there are great banks out there, for example Well Fargo (WFC) great bank, great management, great yield and yes in the future great investment, but that day is not here. When my electrician father is telling me about the "Credit Crunch" and how banks are going under while we drink beer over the grill, you can guess what the rest of the world is thinking about most other financials.
OK after you have successfully hit yourself look at your other holdings. Some of you might find a company like
Apple Computer (APPL). this is an example of my thinking..Apple has the iPhone..iPhone good...Apple stock go up.
next example..
A- Power Energy (APWR) China needs power... APWR gives power to China....APWR stock go up.
stock picking can be just about this easy.

Remember we ride strength and momentum!!We find stocks on the move and buy them so that we can sell them for profit. We never never never look at a stock like we did our old girlfriend or boyfriend and justify sticking with them. If you find yourself looking at your portfolio thinking you have weathered a storm and brighter days are ahead. See above earlier in this blog and punch yourself again. The clock is ticking and life is too short to be married to anything other than your spouse.
take care all,
hugs
t

HOLY CRAP!

Well as I write this the DOW is down almost 300 points on the day and will most likely break a 2008 low. So much for the lows of March that gave the market a sense that there was light at the end of the proverbial tunnel. Well, congress is in session talking about to whom to blame for the rise in the price of oil, the evil speculators or the evil Saudis who are hording oil so that they can afford their fleet of private jets. Meanwhile we have Citi Group (ticker C) and most of the Financial Sector at $17.85 or breaking lows and still not rated a buy by anyone who carries any weight. While this is going on we have Forbes attacking thestreet.com on the merit of their writers and contributors in a half effort to get more readership. Everyone is bickering and no one is getting along, it is a sign of the financial times and it breaks my little heart.

Well, what in the hell are we, as investors, suppose to do now?
Turn off the television and put down the paper (unless it's Investors Business Daily), and stop watching the news. Surrender to the fact that oil is goingto rise and the market is going to fall. So, put on your favorite album as loud as you can and try and wash all this bad news out of your head, relax, and think. My only request is that no one rocks out to any Pink Floyd, it is bad for the market..just kidding.

Amid all this negativity we can find our next trade. If we look closely we can find strength and capitalize on it in this case we are going with Energy Alternatives. We know this is not a ground breaking idea, but the risk/reward factor is right for us.

Yes ladies and gents Oil is so last year, Coal is the new Black. And as far we are concerned we want to take a good hard look at Coal ETF's for near term gains and on the broader stroke Energy Alternative ETFs. Think wind, nuclear, and I hate to say it even solar. Find a good ETF with good international exposure. Next your going to buy as much as you can. Next write close the money calls so you will get called out for a quick profit. While your getting called out and making money off the spread the market should be down hovering around 11,200 and ready for and around of buying on dips. But the name of this game is cash reserve, keep that cash close to your heart and get ready to go shopping on that upcoming Independence Day stock market fireside sale.
Good trading to all,
cheers!
Tony

June 23 (oh boy here we go again, panic in the street)

Any way so here we go.....last week was a rough week for the average investor. Wall street and just about every media outlet felt that the lows of March were our bottom in the market. Both the wall street journal and Barron's had articles arguing that the slump was over, but again they had it wrong. Congress is calling emergency sessions to fight the battle against Oil speculators, and they have it wrong too. Like i said two weeks ago, oil was going to keep on climbing (bubbles never are always longer lived than anyone can speculate) and until the price of oil calms down and the credit crunch begins to subside the market is still going to limp along. But don't worry, like i said in my email last week, the price of oil is going to climb and more and more people are going to start crying that we are in a total recession. So what do we do? well we wait, as more and more people figure out that times are tougher than they want he market is going to retreat lower and lower. how low is the market going to go? by my calculations we are going to retreat another 10% in the next few months. Ouch!!! But don't stress, remember i told you that this was coming, and more pain is in the near term. so we need to go on the defense and wait for the great buying opportunities. Convert more and more of your profits into cash and not reinvestment. Now maybe the time to buy that house that you think you can flip.
cheers to all T

June 9

any way I was dead on on my calls last week, I think the market expected a pretty quiet week last week in hopes of a little respite from the woes of may but they had it totally wrong. As i called it, oil broke another high on thursday (not on wed like i predicted) but the market reacted like all sheep do when they are scared. They ran away with their i eyes closed in a panicked herd. In the end the market closed friday almost shedding 3.4% of its gains of the prior two weeks. And now for some even worse news, people are now even more concerned about the recovery of the economy and rising commodity prices, which will lead to even more losses when retail numbers come out this week. We also have the National association of Relaters reporting their home sales numbers (this is the number people use to measure the strength of personal credit market and consumer confidience). The worst thing of all the market is expecting these numbers to show some signs of improvement from the last quarter. In fact the market for the week ahead hinges of the perception of this data on our economy. In my opinion this could be a turning point for our markets. If these numbers a less than what is expected we are going to hear the word recession cried out for all to hear and it will be completely official the bulls still left in this market will become fewer and fewer. The markets will stumble we will again see the DOw at 13000 again as if we were back in Feb and Aug. But never fear, believe it or not, i find this to be a good thing. We need to to test some lows in order to see how high we will rebound. We want the sheep to get out so that they all can jump in when the skies are looking blue again and send the market back to were it should be. Because like always there is great news on the horizon, we just need to find it and interpret it before all those sheep out there hear it on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. First good news out there, starting JULY 1 the US govt is going to stop hording sweet crude oil. on the average the US keeps .3% of all oil for itself, the gov in a fit off efficiency reacted correctly to the oil crisis and is going to let all oil produced out into the market. This could send oil prices back down to $110 a barrel and even lower when we find out we may develop a surplus of oil. This is looming just beyond the horizon, and now because of the past few months everyone now knows high oil prices bad for market, low oil prices good for the market. When oil drops markets will rise and when this happens hopefully we will have your money in things that will quickly benefit from dropping oil prices. The other thing is the fed may be able soon to start paying interest to money that banks hold in deposit in fed banks. This crucial to motivate banks to sure up the credit markets and get their own credit rating up. This will start a positive outlook for those beaten up financials. also great news. that will cause the markets to rise. So the lesson is to get our chess pieces out on the table and positioned to take advantage of this situation. so look for a painful week ahead but the light is appearing at the end of the tunnel. Maybe..haha

Take care T

May 5 (cinco de mayo) woo hoo

The week ahead. The economy has been treading water in low gear since Feb which is good news that has been largely overshadowed by the headlines of the rise in oil prices, but the economy is in fact showing some short signs of growth despite the inflation of oil.

In the week ahead many analysts see a slight recovery from the 3% correction in the market this past week. I disagree. it is my opinion that the market will continue to trade side ways as investors continue to digest oil hovering at $130 a barrel. Assuming that there are no natural disasters or anything to appear on the horizon that may sway oil consumption it is my belief that the market will hold steady at its current levels most likely until wednesday where we may attempt to see traders push oil to new highs i this case we will see any gains in the market for the week evaporate under the Peak Oil theory. I think the Dow closing at 13,700 would be a productive week. As result of this and the the fact that the major story in every media outlet being the price of oil and the cost of food commodities, i wish to play on these issues in my investing ideas for the rest of the summer. First as i told you yesterday i am liking more and more The Rail Roads, I put my clients in Union Pacific last year and it is up 50% on the year. After reading Union Pacific's annual report for 2007 I like the stock even more. they broke records hauling tons of commodities for the year. I think that this growth will continue as more and more truckers go under as they falter under the price of diesel. So far with the current rise in the price for fuel for 18 wheelers 3% of all truckers have gone under, i expect that number to only grow as the price of fuel raises leaving the only transportation alternative being the rail roads. However RXR are not immune to the rise in fuel costs, locomotives also run on diesel. But most RXR have a fuel surcharge in their billing that will help against the cost of fuel. Also we need to find the RXR with that plans to retire the most of its older les fuel efficient locomotives and replace them wit newer more efficient cars. I think Union PAcific is our company but we still need to look into its route structure more. But after a recent split, and yeilding 4% dividend it rivals only Global Santa Fe rail Road. Any way start tracking the market next week and see for yourself how my predictions play out and in the meantime look into UNP and let me know what you think. also look into RIG, ABB, CE. remember be like a lion...fearless