June 9

any way I was dead on on my calls last week, I think the market expected a pretty quiet week last week in hopes of a little respite from the woes of may but they had it totally wrong. As i called it, oil broke another high on thursday (not on wed like i predicted) but the market reacted like all sheep do when they are scared. They ran away with their i eyes closed in a panicked herd. In the end the market closed friday almost shedding 3.4% of its gains of the prior two weeks. And now for some even worse news, people are now even more concerned about the recovery of the economy and rising commodity prices, which will lead to even more losses when retail numbers come out this week. We also have the National association of Relaters reporting their home sales numbers (this is the number people use to measure the strength of personal credit market and consumer confidience). The worst thing of all the market is expecting these numbers to show some signs of improvement from the last quarter. In fact the market for the week ahead hinges of the perception of this data on our economy. In my opinion this could be a turning point for our markets. If these numbers a less than what is expected we are going to hear the word recession cried out for all to hear and it will be completely official the bulls still left in this market will become fewer and fewer. The markets will stumble we will again see the DOw at 13000 again as if we were back in Feb and Aug. But never fear, believe it or not, i find this to be a good thing. We need to to test some lows in order to see how high we will rebound. We want the sheep to get out so that they all can jump in when the skies are looking blue again and send the market back to were it should be. Because like always there is great news on the horizon, we just need to find it and interpret it before all those sheep out there hear it on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. First good news out there, starting JULY 1 the US govt is going to stop hording sweet crude oil. on the average the US keeps .3% of all oil for itself, the gov in a fit off efficiency reacted correctly to the oil crisis and is going to let all oil produced out into the market. This could send oil prices back down to $110 a barrel and even lower when we find out we may develop a surplus of oil. This is looming just beyond the horizon, and now because of the past few months everyone now knows high oil prices bad for market, low oil prices good for the market. When oil drops markets will rise and when this happens hopefully we will have your money in things that will quickly benefit from dropping oil prices. The other thing is the fed may be able soon to start paying interest to money that banks hold in deposit in fed banks. This crucial to motivate banks to sure up the credit markets and get their own credit rating up. This will start a positive outlook for those beaten up financials. also great news. that will cause the markets to rise. So the lesson is to get our chess pieces out on the table and positioned to take advantage of this situation. so look for a painful week ahead but the light is appearing at the end of the tunnel. Maybe..haha

Take care T