Tuesday, June 24, 2008

May 5 (cinco de mayo) woo hoo

The week ahead. The economy has been treading water in low gear since Feb which is good news that has been largely overshadowed by the headlines of the rise in oil prices, but the economy is in fact showing some short signs of growth despite the inflation of oil.

In the week ahead many analysts see a slight recovery from the 3% correction in the market this past week. I disagree. it is my opinion that the market will continue to trade side ways as investors continue to digest oil hovering at $130 a barrel. Assuming that there are no natural disasters or anything to appear on the horizon that may sway oil consumption it is my belief that the market will hold steady at its current levels most likely until wednesday where we may attempt to see traders push oil to new highs i this case we will see any gains in the market for the week evaporate under the Peak Oil theory. I think the Dow closing at 13,700 would be a productive week. As result of this and the the fact that the major story in every media outlet being the price of oil and the cost of food commodities, i wish to play on these issues in my investing ideas for the rest of the summer. First as i told you yesterday i am liking more and more The Rail Roads, I put my clients in Union Pacific last year and it is up 50% on the year. After reading Union Pacific's annual report for 2007 I like the stock even more. they broke records hauling tons of commodities for the year. I think that this growth will continue as more and more truckers go under as they falter under the price of diesel. So far with the current rise in the price for fuel for 18 wheelers 3% of all truckers have gone under, i expect that number to only grow as the price of fuel raises leaving the only transportation alternative being the rail roads. However RXR are not immune to the rise in fuel costs, locomotives also run on diesel. But most RXR have a fuel surcharge in their billing that will help against the cost of fuel. Also we need to find the RXR with that plans to retire the most of its older les fuel efficient locomotives and replace them wit newer more efficient cars. I think Union PAcific is our company but we still need to look into its route structure more. But after a recent split, and yeilding 4% dividend it rivals only Global Santa Fe rail Road. Any way start tracking the market next week and see for yourself how my predictions play out and in the meantime look into UNP and let me know what you think. also look into RIG, ABB, CE. remember be like a lion...fearless

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