Crap!!! and more Crap!!!Socialism, Inflation, and more self-doubt than a trechy at prom.

Once again hello all out there, Tony here and I must be completely honest right now. I'm a tiny bit disappointed in myself at the moment and am drowning my sorrows in a Coors Light.

As most of you might know Disney (DIS) reported yesterday and the had a great quarter. This is the reason for my personal frustration. I have to admit ladies and gents that I didn't take my own advice and missed out on about 4 points of the stock's upside. Most importantly, i missed out on a solid trade. Why? well i have to admit i went against my better judgement and for a second i listened to all those bears and got spooked out of my trade in DIS. Turning on the TV the only thing i heard back in JULY was the rise in gas price. The rise in gas. the world is coming to an end and the only thing left will be cockroaches and high gas prices.

Financial media sounds to me more like evangelical Christians. "REPENT THE END IS NEAR, YOUR LIFE OF GLUTTONY IN THE FORM OF THE CDO OR MOBS WILL BE ARMAGEDDON!!!!" they paint oil companies like demons who hoard oil and short sellers the horseman of the Apocalypse.

And like i said for about a week in July i bought into the hype and broke 2 of my cardinal rules of investing.
The first being, i turned on the TV and listened to some guy on the screen. If at all possible never do this, it will be your down fall. Sure there are some guys out there in financial media land that i really like, but none of them have there own shows and the ones that do, save their good info for their email newsletters. So, the scare tactics worked on me and i convinced myself that high gas prices would severely hurt Disney's theme park attendance...and i was wrong. The lesson is: People will always take a vacation, but in this climate they will drive not fly to their destination. So the trade is wait for gas to come back to 120$ a barrel and by the OIL ETFs or Rio Tinto or something that backs off when gas gets low, because the drop in prices is always temporary. Let's face it, we are running out oil. and the Olympics is the wild card to place a strain on supply. No one talk about the Olympics and what effect it will have on the world economy.

My second mistake was that i did not treat my i investment like its own investment. Meaning, when i looked at Disney i lumped it together with a horrible trade i made last year into Six Flags another theme park. Again i listened to the old TV and bought Six Flags on a recommendation and lost almost 30% immediately. I hate loosing money. So i was admittedly gun shy of putting my money into another theme park. The lesson: as investors you have to look at every company as a different animal. no matter how close it looks on paper to another company. In the case of Disney I saw only a theme park not a major licensing money making well run machine. Think about it, Jonas Brother, Miley Cyruss, High School Musical, all these franchises are money makers, but since i lumped Disney into the same bag as Six Flags i missed out on the big picture.

When your putting your money into a company the first thing you want to grasp is the big picture. Start with the macro then move slowly into the micro.

So this week ladies a gents as you watch the market apply the most basic rules of this investing environment.
When oil goes down, the market goes up.
When oil goes up, the market goes down.
When inflation spikes, so does gold.

as you watch these unfold start thinking aboujt potential trades and you will notice great success.

So as the Government meddles with financials and grows the deficit inflation will spike, so guess what to do. look at the simple rules above and make your trade. Gold GOld GOldGOld GOld GOld precious metals GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD. GOLD Bars GOlD commodity contracts, gold ETFs I don't care but inflation is a killer of corperate profits especially those huge DOW weighted conglomerates that need to convert back into the dollar before putting revenue on the books. They will struggle and miss estimates then drop in price. So shy away from them. Sorry Ken Fisher but your wrong my friend.

any way take care all hugs and give a shout out to Rampage Jackson when you can.
cheers
Tony