Look at the Yahoo Finance main page, and you'll see the headline. it reads "Stocks Rise as Employment Report Comes In As Expected". Stocks rise? The Dow is sitting at 11,200. The market was hovering at 11,800 last week. Stocks rise? Not to mention that the market was flirting with 14,000 no more than a year ago. Looking at my long portfolio it sure does not seem that stocks are rising, in fact I'm not sure but basic arithmetic tells me that stocks are falling.
Let's face it, if you were in the market when the Dow hit 14,000 seeing the market at 11,200 does not feel very much like the market is up. You, like most, are feeling the pain of this little correction, but a great lesson can be learned from this hole fiasco.
What is the lesson, you ask?
Well, first and foremost we have the market. Look at the market itself and its current level. Although i don't watch any financial television, the last time i did Qualcom was getting ready to break a $1000 a share and the media applauded the ride, then the tech bubble burst and i found half of my net worth gone. So as a result i watched more financial television thinking there i had missed some great piece of information. So I became a fanatic i got another television so i could watch both Bloomberg and CNBC but still my stocks went down. Meanwhile these supposed financial journalist stood scratching their heads still telling me that the market was going to recover, and it did. Four years later.
The lesson..just because a guy on talks stocks on T.V. does not mean that he is smarter than you. So, take what they say with a grain of salt. More often they are just repeating what someone else told them or what some corporate sponsor told them to say. Don't underestimate your abilities to pick your own winners.
Lesson 2, don't try to time the markets. It is impossible. yeah you can gather enough information to get a pretty good idea of where the market is going in the near term (just look at my posts below, I'm pretty good at it) the only information this gives you is how much cash to hold in your reserve because we always by on dips to lower our cost basis. But remember we never go to a point where we have no cash in reserve. Don't get greedy.
Lesson 3, Find the strength. Find momentum. Find were the smart money is going. Use MACD's, bolinger bands, 13-d's, use barrons, investors business daily, use your uncle's know it all attitude toward everything to hunt out your next move. But remember take what every one says with a grain of salt. Gather and interpret then move. But before you move decide how long you will hold this investment, and how much you plan to make. Then stick to your plan. If it is not working out, sell. sell. sell. In this market it is wiser to sell than to hold because we all know the market is going to go down further.
well that is all for now, go get drunk this weekend and eat your face off, and chill with the family.
cheers to all.
t
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